Aim for wide receivers for your fantasy football flex position

Luckily, the decision is easy: plan to target and use a wide receiver for your flex spot, a decision that should shape your late-round fantasy draft strategy.

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Why? Running backs often rely heavily on volume and touchdowns to score high fantasy points. This means that the difference in potential between running backs in the early rounds and those in the later rounds becomes more apparent given the limited number of carries and touchdowns to handle. And most tight ends rely too heavily on touchdown to be considered a flexspot except in emergencies. Meanwhile, enough wide receivers can make impactful contributions through receptions (in PPR leagues) and yards that they offer consistent value in later rounds, not to mention the surrender line.

Essentially, wide receivers are seeing a more gradual decline in average fantasy points per game because of their adaptability, the evolving nature of NFL offenses, how catches and receiving yards are allocated, and their ability to exploit different facets of the game Round.

One way to illustrate why planning to use a wide receiver in the flex spots will give you a head start on draft day is to look at impact metrics – a concept that helps us understand the importance of various factors to the Measure achievement of high-scoring weeks.

For example, let’s look at the data from running backs and wide receivers who score 30 points or more in a week, a total that would significantly increase your chances of a weekly win. The Impact value for a first-round selected running back who scores a 30-point week is 3.4, meaning that the odds of him making such a high-scoring week are about 3.4- times higher than for a randomly selected running back. As the round progresses, the impact value decreases. A running back drafted in the second round has an impact rating of 1.8 for a 30-point week, which means they are 1.8 times more likely than their baseline to have it to reach. Running backs drafted in later rounds have even lower impact ratings, indicating a lower likelihood of reaching the 30-point mark.

In comparison, a wide receiver drafted in the first round has an impact rating of 3.7 for a 30-point week, while a wide receiver drafted in the second round has an impact rating of 2.1 has. Just like running backs, wide receivers’ impact stats decrease as the round progresses, just not as dramatically.

In general, wide receivers used in later rounds offer more consistent value than running backs. Of course, it matters which players you recruit and you’re unlikely to keep all of your late-round picks for the entire season as injuries, waivers and other changes result in a roster overhaul. Still, it’s important to know that it’s better if you plan to fill your flex spot with wide receivers — and act accordingly during your draft.