Does Participating in the Home Run Derby Really Hurt a Baseball Player’s Second Half?

To many fans, the most exciting part of the All-Star Break is the Home Run Derby. The contest has produced such memorable moments as the Vlad Guerrero, Jr. vs. Joc Pederson triple swing-off tiebreaker in 2019, Bryce Harper rallying from a 9 HR deficit with less than a minute left in 2018 (in front of his hometown Washington fans), and Aaron Judge winning the event as a rookie in 2017 with four HRs of 500+ feet.

The MLB Vegas odds are out for the 2022 Home Run Derby with Pete Alonso being the +250 favorite for a third straight crown. There are a couple of big names in the event, but a lot of other players have avoided this contest in recent years because of claims that it messes up a person’s swing for the second half of the season.

So does participating in the Derby really hinder a player’s second-half performance? Let’s see how some recent winners have done before and after the break.

Pete Alonso 2019 and 2021

Alonso set a new first-round record with 35 home runs in 2021, no doubt hitting at Coors Field playing a part in that. He beat Trey Mancini 23-22 in the finals, the same score he beat Guerrero, Jr. by in 2019 at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.

Not all things are equal since 2019 was Alonso’s rookie season, but he had an SLG% of .633 with 30 HRs in the first half of the year and was .522 with 23 HRs in the second half. Those first-half numbers were .477 with 17HRs compared to .560 with 20 HRs so he actually showed improvement after the Derby.

Bryce Harper 2018

Some would say the clock ran a little slow in the finals in 2018 as Bryce Harper rallied to beat Kyle Schwarber in front of the hometown fans, but that’s neither here nor there. Harper averaged an HR every four games in the first half, but that dropped to every six games in the second half although he did also battle some injuries.

Bobby Abreu 2005 / David Wright 2006

Alonso and Harper not showing horrible ill effects from recent HR Derby wins has led to the second-half downfall myth kind of going by the wayside. It was very much alive in ’05 and ’06 though. Abreu had an HR every 22.1 plate appearances in the first half of 2005 but that plummeted to every 53.7 AB after the break.

Wright experience a similar loss of pop in 2006. Wright had 20 HRs before the break – every 19.3 PA – and just 6 after the Derby, hitting one every 45.8 plate appearances. 

SABR did a study up through the 2009 Home Run Derby that showed that participating players had a 6.06% HR percentage prior to the event which dropped to 5.34% after the All-Star Break. Those numbers were 4.20% for players who did not participate before the event and 4.28% after showing not much change.

In conclusion, participating in the HR Derby doesn’t seem to be a huge hindrance in recent years. The analytical aspect of launch angle and other factors has gotten hitting down to a science, so a few extra swings may actually be good for a player.