Globalization does not dissolve. It changes.

“Globalization is not something we can stop or turn off,” former President Bill Clinton told an audience in Vietnam in 2000. “It’s the economic equivalent of a force of nature – like wind or water.”

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is a slowdown in globalization that is spoken of with the same aura of inevitability. The steady increase in the flow of trade, money, people and ideas between countries since the end of World War II seems destined to be reversed during a prolonged period of balkanization, with Russia and its allies operating in an arena that China is in another, and the US and its allies in a third. In short, the world could be in for something similar to what it was a little over a century ago, when World War I, the Russian Revolution and, yes, a global pandemic, caused countries to turn inward. Globalization does not dissolve. It changes.

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