Inter Miami were not long ago one of the worst teams in MLS and thanks to an impressive rebound behind superstar Lionel Messi they established themselves as favorites in the first final of the Leagues Cup tournament.
According to Odds Shark, Inter Miami meet hosts Nashville SC in the League Cup final on Saturday and are moneyline favorites at +105 with Nashville SC at +215 according to Odds Shark. At bet365 Miami sits at +120 on the money line while Nashville sits at +210.
Messi has scored nine goals from 14 shots on target in Miami’s six games. The Herons have netted four goals in total and three goals once in four games, giving credence to the idea the back of the net could be put to the test on Saturday.
Nashville has scored multiple goals in five of their six League Cup wins, including five in their quarterfinal win over Minnesota United. But their 2.5 goals per game in the tournament is well below Miami’s average of 3.5 per game.
The probability that the game will score more than 2.5 goals in total is -165, while the odds are less than +115. Nashville have shown some defensive strength with shutouts in each of the last two rounds, including a 2-0 win over Mexico’s CF Monterrey in Tuesday’s semifinals.
However, the club has never seen such a hot Messi, who also has four assists in the League Cup. Messi’s chances of scoring are -120 on Odds Shark.
It’s also not surprising that Inter Miami’s chances of winning an MLS Cup title are plummeting.
All the excitement is despite the fact that Inter Miami have a challenge to reach the postseason as they are 12 points away from a wildcard position on Wednesday. Messi is yet to play his first MLS game of the regular season.
According to BetMGM Sportsbook, the move to Inter Miami reflects increasing confidence in Messi’s excellence and dominance in the League Cup.
Before Messi’s first game, Inter Miami was +3300 to win an MLS championship. That number dropped to +2500 before his second game in the League Cup and to +1200 before his third game.
On Wednesday, after Messi’s sixth game with the franchise, Inter Miami are considered the 3rd-over-700 favorite to win the league.
Another display of Messi’s influence are the BetMGM stats on overall betting interest.
The highest ticket quota of the sports betting providers for the league victory is with Messi and Inter Miami with a whopping 37.9 percent. FC Cincinnati is a distant second with 17.1 percent and LAFC is third with 7 percent of tickets.
Inter Miami also boasts BetMGM’s highest handle percentage at 50.8 percent, followed by FC Cincinnati (14.1) and LAFC (6.1).
Should Messi continue to lead Inter Miami towards the playoffs, their supporters can look forward to a nice payday. BetMGM lists Inter Miami as its largest liability of any team in the MLS League Winner futures market.
On Wednesday, the only teams with lower odds than Inter Miami were FC Cincinnati (+400) and Los Angeles FC (+600). The Philadelphia Union was +800, the New England Revolution was +1000.
The regular MLS season ends in October.
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https://deadspin.com/lionel-messi-inter-miami-favorite-to-raise-leagues-cup-1850745845 Lionel Messi, Inter Miami’s favorite to win the League Cup