Recession risk “about a third”, “high probability” of an economic “misstep”

Speaking on CNN’s The Lead on Friday, Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, warned that even given the March jobs report, an economic “mistake is a high probability” and the risk of a recession is “one in three” at this point.”

Host Jake Tapper asked about his earlier warnings about the risk of a US recession and if there was anything in March’s jobs report that made him change his outlook.

Zandi replied: “No. I think the economy is at risk because we have a very strong economy that is going to full employment very quickly, we have very high inflation, inflation expectations due to the pandemic and the Russian invasion, and the Fed is raising interest rates. And in such an environment, a misstep is very likely. So I currently put the recession risk at around one in three. However, I will say, Jake, that the fundamentals of the economy are strong. You know, you don’t create half a million jobs every month for over a year with an economy that’s not doing very well. So, I think there’s a good chance we’ll pull through, but it’s going to be a bit difficult.”

Follow Ian Hanchett on Twitter @IanHanchett Recession risk “about a third”, “high probability” of an economic “misstep”

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