America will lead the world in monkeypox cases within days, statistics suggest, as cases surge amid increased testing.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has detected 3,487 cases of the tropical disease as of Tuesday, behind Spain with 3,596 confirmed infections.
Infections in the US are rising by an average of 216 a day – compared to 108 in Spain – suggesting the country is likely to overtake its European counterpart sometime this week.
dr Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, told DailyMail.com that the surge in testing is picking up chains of transmission that have been going on uninterrupted for “some time”. He said it was “reasonable” to indicate that the outbreak in America will “overtake” those elsewhere.
The US population is seven times that of Spain – with 329 million people – and the country is also now doing more testing than many, which will put its cases ahead of those in other countries.
The chart above shows the total number of cases in the US and the current total compared to other countries around the world. The US only reports cases on weekdays and not weekends. The latest figure is for July 25, while that for Spain – which has the largest outbreak – is for July 22.
The map above shows cases of monkeypox in the US as reported to the CDC. Only four states – Maine, Montana, Vermont and Wyoming – have yet to absorb the virus
The United States updated its monkeypox count every weekday with the latest numbers through July 25.
But Spain has released its figures every two to three days, with the latest data only from July 22nd. As of July 19, Spain reported 3,125 cases.
DailyMail.com averaged the daily increase in cases over the last seven available days to calculate how fast they are increasing every 24 hours.
This showed that America’s balance sheet is currently growing at about twice the rate of Spain’s, suggesting it will soon overtake the country.
Among other nations in Europe that previously topped the list – including the UK – experts have recently suggested their outbreaks may have peaked.
Asked if the US would soon have the worst of the outbreak, Hanage said: “The US has been slow to initiate widespread testing and so they are now recognizing chains of transmission that have been going on uninterrupted for some time. We don’t know how much increased awareness, particularly in the core communities of gay and bisexual men, will slow transmission.
Washington DC joins New York City in delaying second monkeypox vaccine
Washington DC has postponed the introduction of the second dose of monkeypox, joining New York City.
The Department of Health announced the move on Monday, citing “very limited” stocks of vaccines and a rapid increase in cases.
They said: “This is extremely important as having more people vaccinated with their first vaccine will help us contain the virus.”
America introduces the Jynneous vaccine to combat monkeypox with two doses, with the second dose to be given four weeks after the first.
But some experts say it’s possible to widen the gap – as has happened with the Covid vaccine in other countries – to ensure more people can be vaccinated first.
However, a Food and Drug Administration vaccine adviser has warned against the move, saying no studies have been conducted to determine if the vaccines are still effective.
Both New York City and Washington DC offer monkeypox vaccinations to gay or bisexual men with multiple sexual partners.
“But it is reasonable to assume that the number of US cases will continue to rise and outstrip that of the outbreak elsewhere.”
When the outbreak began in May, the CDC was conducting about 23 tests a day because it was having trouble wiping the swab off the floor. Many medical professionals also complained that they were not accepting samples from suspected cases due to strict guidelines.
It took more than a month to register five commercial labs and relax guidance so more testing could be done.
According to the CDC, this has increased testing capacity from 10,000 to 80,000 swabs per week.
Since then, daily numbers have skyrocketed, with the largest daily increase reported so far last Thursday, with 298 cases recorded in 24 hours.
Another 596 cases were recorded on Friday, Saturday and Sunday — or 198 per day — CDC figures show, but capacity is generally lower over weekends when many people are away from their desks.
Breaking down the data by area shows that New York City is currently having the largest outbreak, with 1,040 confirmed infections. California follows with 356 and Illinois with 341.
Only four states — Maine, Montana, Vermont and Wyoming — have yet to record a single infection with the disease.
America initially focused on contact tracing efforts to get a grip on the disease, vaccinating close contacts of positive cases.
However, as more and more infections unrelated to known cases were discovered, New York City and Washington DC began offering the fortnightly vaccine to all gay or bisexual men with multiple sex partners in an attempt to stem the spread of the virus.
However, the launches were rocked by a lack of offers, with New York dates repeatedly running out within minutes of going online. Both cities have now delayed the second dose – which is due four weeks after the first – to allow them to get more first-time vaccinations.
It’s not clear if other states will also start vaccinating the group — where most cases are discovered — to help get a handle on the outbreak.
Monkeypox is usually confined to West Africa, but earlier this year it was caught at a Pride festival in Spain.
Since then, more than 40 countries around the world – mostly in Europe – have detected cases of the disease, occurring mostly among gay or bisexual men.
Unlike previous outbreaks, the disease appears to spread primarily through sexual contact, with lesions — allowing transmission — appearing initially on the genital and anal areas.
Experts say the disease has likely already spread to other groups who are more at risk. In the United States it was determined last week that two children were infected.
Source: | This article originally belongs to Dailymail.co.uk
https://www.soundhealthandlastingwealth.com/health-news/america-set-to-have-worst-monkeypox-outbreak-in-world-in-days-statistics-suggest/ Statistics suggest America is set to experience the world’s worst monkeypox outbreak ‘in days’