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Dick Morris recently compared Tucker Carlson to Neville Chamberlain selling Czechoslovakia in Munich because Carlson opposed Ukraine joining NATO.
Unreasonable. This is not the 1930s, Carlson is a TV commentator with no political power, Chamberlain is British Prime Minister, head of government in a country still exhausted by World War I, desperate to avoid another world war by appeasing Hitler. Since Carlson isn’t Chamberlain, Putin isn’t Hitler speaking ill of “Lebensraum” and the Treaty of Versailles. Morris knows better than making false similarities.
Carlson questioned whether the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO could be seen by Russia as anything but a provocation and a threat to Russian security. Instead of stopping war, it can start one.
One of the first steps in foreign and military policy is to find out what interests the other side. There’s no need to anger the bear by poking it with a stick, which is what expanding NATO will do. Let Ukraine be a buffer, a neutral, it benefits everyone. For centuries, Ukraine was part of Russia, and trade between the two is so much that Russia is Ukraine’s third-largest export market. The two countries also have cultural and religious ties. Putin has not threatened to send his troops into Europe, which is busy destroying itself by importing Islam and removing citizens’ rights under bogus “hate crimes” laws.
The specter of Russia taking Crimea from Ukraine is seen as an example of Russian aggression, but Crimea has been Russian since time immemorial, only to change when Khrushchev handed it over to Ukraine. It is still ethnically Russian and if one believes in self-determination, its inhabitants want to be Russians, not Ukrainians.
If a war in Ukraine broke out, what could the US do? Sanctions are there, but militarily it’s a dead end. Without European cooperation, and without any cooperation, how can you bring in the necessary troops and supplies? Geography is against you. A part on the road will extend from DC to Ohio, where is the coast to go to to transport it? America didn’t have a merchant fleet to carry them all, we had to charter ships for the Desert War and during Desert Storm the Koreans refused to charter ships for the US. inactive or their long range bombers? The existing American forces in Europe will not be enough, the Russians are right there, we are not.
Taiwan presents another case. One, the native Taiwanese are not Han Chinese; two, it’s an island giving it something of a buffer; three, there are agreements with Taiwan, which do not exist with Ukraine; four, 7order fleet already in the area.
If Beijing attacks, the first attack will quickly take away communications as we did in Iraq; second, paratroopers will occupy major airfields and centers; three, an invasion by sea would secure the ground and wipe out any remaining resistance, all before the United States could do anything. With enough warning, however, Taiwan could deter or hinder any invasion while 7order fleet defeated a Chinese amphibious force. However, with China building a blue-water navy, the entire Pacific Ocean could be on fire. On the wary side, there is a lot of Taiwanese investment in the mainland, and Mr. Xi is always wary of losing the “Mantle of Heaven”. China thinks in terms of centuries, she can be patient.
If Russia invaded Ukraine and the Baltic states while Beijing attacked Taiwan, it could easily launch a nuclear strike, which no one saving the Chinese could withstand. Given the weakness of the Biden administration, they can attack but wiser leaders should prevail. A Chinese victory over Taiwan would lead to the denuclearization of Japan and South Korea, in which they would ally with Australia, which will soon have nuclear ships. It can then be expected that Singapore, Vietnam and the rest of Southeast Asia will seek safety under that umbrella, with India likely to join the action as well. That potential should be known to Beijing.
What stopped the Russians was China’s ambitions and still smoldering resentment over the territory lost to the Russian empire. China needs the space, Russia’s Siberia has it, and the Russians don’t have the population to hold it. That idea should be in Putin’s head, and if not, it should be there.
These are dangerous times that require the skill of an above average poker player. Sun-Tzu’s adage that the greatest general is one who defeats his opponent without a fight is still true. Putin and Xi both know this, so does the US
https://www.bizpacreview.com/2021/12/17/layer-through-the-looking-glass-reflections-on-ukraine-and-taiwan-1177271/ Through the Looking Glass – Reflections on Ukraine and Taiwan