Trump 2024 test runs

Nevada secretary of state candidate Jim Marchant speaks to a crowd in Carson City, Nev., March 4.


Ricardo Torres-Cortez / Associated Press

To the exclusion of most other problems, Donald Trump focuses his speeches and posts on the discredited claim that he won the 2020 election, which is then stolen by the massive fraud involved. hundreds of thousands of votes. This continued even though Trump’s team did not provide convincing evidence of its fraudulent claims. Mr. Trump’s willingness to engage in condemning the 2020 outcome — or at least casting doubt on the outcome — often seems to be a prerequisite for his approval. This seems to be especially true in races for secretary of state — the officer who, in most states, oversees some or all of the election process. As a result, several Republican primaries will be preliminary tests of how this message might play in the battleground states in 2024.

One notable example is the race to be the GOP candidate for secretary of state in Nevada, a state where Joe Biden won 33,596 votes (2.4% of the total vote). The winning candidate, Jim Marchant, has made fraud in the 2020 election the focus of his primaries. “My work exposes” it, he said, “that makes a lot of people very nervous. The Communist/Socialist/RINO Cabal is pursuing me hard. Mr. Marchant organized the First American Coalition of Secretary of State, or AFSOSC, to support like-minded candidates. He is more radical on this point, even more so than Mr. Trump, arguing that “your vote hasn’t been counted for decades, you haven’t voted anyone”. Presidents tend to shut themselves up in lamenting their own loss.

Arizona’s primary election for secretary of state on August 2 will be another test. The runner-up, Representative Mark Finchem, has the backing of AFSOSC and the backing of Mr. Trump. Calling him a “real warrior”, the former president applauded Mr Finchem for saying “something few others have the courage to say”. Among those statements were requests to recall Arizona’s electors and confirm results in Maricopa County, which has Phoenix and backed Biden by more than 45,000 votes in a state where he made 10,457 (0) .3% of the total). Mr. Finchem was at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, but he said he did not enter the building.

In Michigan, the Republican nominees for secretary of state, Kristina Karamo, and for attorney general, Matt DePerno, are both heavily denied the 2020 election results. Ms. Karamo pushed the allegation that the ballot boxes Illegal ballots were delivered to Detroit’s counting facility from 3 to 3:30 a.m. election night, and Mr. DePerno, the attorney, alleges that the discrepancy in Antrim County’s initial results did not appear. from a clerical error that the word “engineering” of the Dominion voting machines over the internet. Video shows the Detroit boxes were equipment for a local television station and a Japanese news group, and a panel of three judges dismissed Mr. Antrim validated the county tally.

Based on a campaign with a pledge to “prosecution of those who screwed up the 2020 election and allowed fraud to penetrate the entire electoral system” (Mr. DePerno) or the statement “No. Priority 1 would be to overhaul the rigged voting system” (Mr. Marchant) that could deliver victory in the Republican primaries. But that’s not always the case. AFSOSC-backed candidates for secretary of state in Georgia and Colorado lost in the primaries, by 33% in the previous election and only 28% in the latter.

The harder test will come in November. The baseless claim that the 2020 election has been stolen doesn’t appeal to independent candidates, whose votes in key states are often decisive. determined. A December 2021 poll by UMass found that independents were 49 percent less likely to vote for a candidate who “refused to say Joe Biden was legitimately elected” compared with 24 percent. higher possibility. Thirty-eight percent of independent candidates said they were less likely to vote for someone who “questioned the legitimacy of the outcome” of the 2020 election, compared with 23% who were more likely.

A large enough red tide could sweep several nominees into office. But if Republicans who don’t oppose voter fraud consistently run better than those who do, it would suggest that emphasizing “big theft” might not be a great argument. so for 2024.

For any GOP candidate, there’s no easy way out of weighing whether 2020 has been stolen. Democrats will force Republicans running for other offices to state their stance on these outrageous and corrosive claims. Those hoping for a better GOP should start preparing answers now. They should consider starting with the facts.

Rove helped organize the American Crossroad political action committee and is the author of “The Victory of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).

Wonderland: Democrats always seem ready to push politics into civil unrest. Image: Getty Images / The Boston Globe Composite: Mark Kelly

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Appears in print June 30, 2022. Trump 2024 test runs

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