Weather Warning: Severe weather possible with storms ahead of a cold front on Thursday
overview
The cold front that was approaching the region and bringing light showers on Tuesday stalled only in the north and west. This front helped the southern outflow of the Gulf increase moisture and bring warmer temperatures.
Another cold front will move through the area on Thursday. This front brings scattered showers and storms that pose the threat of severe weather. A few showers and maybe a storm could develop Wednesday evening/night and move north toward southern Mississippi. With that, the SPC has outlined a marginal risk (1/5) for the far northwest of our area for Wednesday and a slight risk (2/5) for most of the area for Thursday.
Timed coordination: A few showers and perhaps a storm from daily warming could develop near the Florida Parishes and head towards southern Mississippi Wednesday evening/night.
The next round of scattered showers and storms will begin around 8 a.m. to 11 a.m. Thursday morning ahead of the cold front. Storm movement will be north-west along the front. The cold front will move eastward later in the afternoon. The front will dissipate in the course of the evening/night around 6-9 p.m. A few showers may persist after the frontal passage but should clear up by Friday morning. The best time for severe weather is between 9am and 4pm.
Threats: Serious threat is low but non-zero, Wednesday evening/night. All modes would be possible, including tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and hail.
The strong threat is higher with the storm round on Thursday, especially in the morning. Surface-based supercells are possible, so all kinds of severe weather are possible.
The storms with the heaviest rain rates and training areas are at risk of local flash flooding. The WPC (Weather Prediction Center) has placed the area at marginal risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall. Precipitation totals are between 1-3″ with locally higher amounts. Exactly where storms form and train over the same locations as they move northeast will determine who gets the highest amounts and who gets less rain.
How to prepare
Make sure you have multiple ways to receive weather alerts and stay up to date with updated forecasts throughout the day. Make sure your phone is unmuted, charged and turned on for WEA notifications.
Have a plan and a safe place to go if an alert is issued for your location. Find an interior space on the lower level away from windows. Secure garden furniture and decoration beforehand.
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https://www.brproud.com/weather/weather-alert-severe-weather-possible-with-storms-out-ahead-of-a-cold-front-thursday/ Weather Warning: Severe weather possible with storms ahead of a cold front on Thursday